A Framework for Stochastic Air Traffic Flow Modeling and Analysis

A framework for stochastic traffic flow modeling over the U. S. National airspace based on queuing network models is advanced. The proposed framework allows the inclusion of a wide variety of trajectory uncertainties such as delays due to weather deviation, air traffic control actions, en route wind, aircraft performance, navigation system precision and flight control. En route queuing networks models are developed at origin-destination airport-level, Center-level, Sector-level and Latitude/Longitude-level spatial resolutions. Queuing models for the taxi, runway and TRACON flight segments have also been developed. Two approximations are employed to derive closed-form solutions to the queuing networks. Comparisons with Monte Carlo simulations and historic traffic data are used to validate the queuing network models. Validated queuing network models are then used to analyze a few next-generation air traffic operations concepts. The present research demonstrates that queuing network model solutions can closely approximate the Monte Carlo simulations, while delivering results at substantial savings in computational effort.